{"id":672,"date":"2018-07-02T14:00:50","date_gmt":"2018-07-02T11:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.unicosigorta.com.tr\/blog\/?p=672"},"modified":"2018-10-17T16:13:41","modified_gmt":"2018-10-17T13:13:41","slug":"bunyamin-surmeliden-yeni-yazi-havada-trafik-sikisti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.unicosigorta.com.tr\/blog\/bunyamin-surmeliden-yeni-yazi-havada-trafik-sikisti\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00fcnyamin S\u00fcrmeli’den yeni yaz\u0131 : Havada trafik s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cEvet evet benim u\u00e7ak da r\u00f6tar yapt\u0131\u201d derdim ben de yaz\u0131y\u0131 yazan de\u011fil de okuyan olsayd\u0131m. Bu ayki konumuz havadaki trafikle ilgili ama bu trafik Jet Ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n trafi\u011fi. Jet ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n -saatte 160 km h\u0131za ula\u015fabilen \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc r\u00fczgarlar- hem do\u011fal s\u00fcre\u00e7te hem de iklim de\u011fi\u015fimi y\u00fcz\u00fcnden rotas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131klar olabiliyor.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00d6nce size \u015fu Jet Ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 kolayca hat\u0131rlayabilmeniz i\u00e7in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir iki \u015feyden bahsedeyim. Jet ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 bir anlamda \u00e7oban k\u00f6pekleri gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilirsiniz. \u00c7oban k\u00f6pekleri nas\u0131l s\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn etraf\u0131nda d\u00f6nerek s\u00fcr\u00fcy\u00fc hem koruru hem de y\u00f6nlendirir, Jet Ak\u0131mlar\u0131 da hakim oldu\u011fu havan\u0131n kay\u0131p ba\u015fka yerlere gitmesini engeller.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"02-1<\/p>\n

\u00c7o\u011fu zaman g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015fs\u00fcn\u00fczd\u00fcr, Balkanlarda k\u0131yamet kopuyor, kardan tipiden g\u00f6z g\u00f6z\u00fc g\u00f6rm\u00fcyor, ama bizde hava g\u00fcnl\u00fck g\u00fcne\u015flik. Sanki hava bir s\u0131n\u0131r \u00e7izmi\u015f gelmesini engelliyor. \u0130\u015fte burada Jet Ak\u0131mlar\u0131 o so\u011fuk havan\u0131n etraf\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir ak\u0131mla d\u00f6ner ve so\u011fu\u011fu bir anlamda bloke edip \u00e7izdi\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 engeller. Balkanlar kar al\u0131rken bizde g\u00fcnl\u00fck g\u00fcne\u015flik bir hava olur. Neyse en nihayetinde Jeti anlad\u0131k, bilenler zaten biliyordu. Konumuza geri d\u00f6nersek Jet ak\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131n rotas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma \u015fiddetli ve kal\u0131c\u0131 f\u0131rt\u0131nalara yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Bu arada iki \u00e7e\u015fit jet ak\u0131m\u0131 var, deniz seviyesinden 9-16 km yukar\u0131da olan polar ve 10-16 km aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki subtropikal jetler. Jet ak\u0131mlar\u0131 yerdeki f\u0131rt\u0131na sistemlerini etkileyebiliyor, u\u00e7u\u015flarda gidi\u015f d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcresinde fark olu\u015fturabiliyor. Tahmin edersiniz zaten, s\u00fcper g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc r\u00fczgarlar en nihayetinde, bu r\u00fczgar\u0131 arkana ald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hem yak\u0131t tasarrufu yapabiliyor hem de zamandan kazanabiliyorsunuz. \u015eimdi yeni bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma diyor ki, karayolundaki trafik s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla atmosferde jet ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k aras\u0131nda bir benzerlik var.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"04-1<\/p>\n

\u0130kisinde de benzer matematiksel bir denklem kullan\u0131labiliyor. Ayn\u0131 karayolunun ta\u015f\u0131tlar i\u00e7in belli bir kapasitesinin olmas\u0131 gibi jet ak\u0131mlar\u0131nda da dalga aktivitesinin belli bir kapasitesi var. Biraz karma\u015f\u0131k oldu, g\u00f6rselle\u015ftirmek ad\u0131na hikayeyi karada ge\u00e7iyor gibi konu\u015fal\u0131m. \u015eimdi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u00f6pr\u00fc trafi\u011fini drone\u2019la izliyorsunuz, bir s\u00fcr\u00fc ara\u00e7 s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131p kalm\u0131\u015f, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc sonu\u00e7ta yolun ta\u015f\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131 bir kapasite var. \u0130\u015fte jet ak\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki dalga hareketinin de s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 var, baz\u0131 engellerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ya da \u00e7ok fazla hareket oldu\u011funda bir noktada s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131p kalabiliyor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak bu fazla hareket, uzun s\u00fcren bir f\u0131rt\u0131na olarak patlak veriyor. Yine \u00f6zellikle \u00e7ok \u015feritli yollar\u0131n darald\u0131\u011f\u0131 noktalarda trafik daha da s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131r ya, jet ak\u0131mlar\u0131 i\u00e7in bunun benzeri de da\u011f, tepe gibi topografik engellerde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor. Jet ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131larda oldu\u011funa bakmay\u0131n, konumu ve g\u00fcc\u00fc y\u00fcksek da\u011flardan etkilenebiliyor.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"01<\/p>\n

S\u0131cakl\u0131k gradyan\u0131 gibi fakt\u00f6rler jetin konumunu, h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebiliyor. Jet ak\u0131m\u0131 herhangi bir engelle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yava\u015fl\u0131yor. Bu yava\u015flamalara da jet ak\u0131mlar\u0131nda trafik s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 diyoruz \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc burada y\u00fczlerce kilometre uzunlu\u011funda menderesler (k\u0131vr\u0131mlar) olu\u015fuyor. Ve hava sistemi bir d\u00f6ng\u00fcye giriyor, bazen haftalarca bile kalabiliyor. Orta enlemlerde ekstrem hava olaylar\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, 2003\u2019te ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen Avrupa s\u0131cak hava dalgas\u0131, 2012 Sandy S\u00fcper tayfunu, 2014\u2019teki Kaliforniya kurakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi beklenmedik, bir anda olu\u015fan hava olaylar\u0131nda bu tarz blokajlar ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trafikte kalan insanlar\u0131n gergin olmas\u0131 gibi hava da gerilmeye, sinirlenmeye ba\u015fl\u0131yor ve bazen bir anda patlayabiliyor. Karayolunun nas\u0131l bir kapasitesi varsa, jet ak\u0131m\u0131nda da durum o \u015fekilde. Hava sisteminin do\u011fal ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanabilmesi i\u00e7in o kapasiteyi a\u015fmamas\u0131 gerekiyor. A\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde sistem oldu\u011fu yere s\u0131\u011fam\u0131yor ve t\u0131kan\u0131yor, d\u00f6ng\u00fcler olu\u015fuyor. Bu duruma yol a\u00e7an ne? Ya da kuvvetini art\u0131ran ne? Tebrikler, tabii bu i\u015fin i\u00e7inde de k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla iklim de\u011fi\u015fiminin parma\u011f\u0131 var. <\/span><\/p>\n

\"06<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fimi ile ekstrem hava olaylar\u0131 art\u0131yor diyoruz ya hani, i\u015fte alt\u0131nda yatan temel sebeplerden biri de bu. Hani o ge\u00e7enler arabalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in evde ne bulduysak (hal\u0131-kilim-battaniye-karton-\u00e7ar\u015faf-dantel vb) kullan<\/span>d\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z hava olaylar\u0131n\u0131n nedenleri i\u00e7inde yer al\u0131yor bu Jet Ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bunal\u0131m. Jet ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor, darl\u0131yor ve sonunda dayanam\u0131yor isyan ediyor, olan oluyor. Do\u011fal s\u00fcre\u00e7te de oluyor bu t\u00fcr blokajlar, ama iklim de\u011fi\u015fimi bunun frekans\u0131n\u0131 ve g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu arada bu durumda salt bir art\u0131\u015ftan da bahsedemiyoruz, zira Pasifik’te, blokajlar\u0131n s\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azalabilece\u011fini de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorlar mesela.<\/p>\n

Bu blokaj olu\u015fumlar\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmek o kadar da kolay de\u011fil. Bu zamana kadar bir\u00e7ok \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ama k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli tahminin yap\u0131lmas\u0131 pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olamam\u0131\u015f, ancak uzun d\u00f6nem paternleri hakk\u0131nda yorum yap\u0131labiliyor. Yaln\u0131z, son zamanda yap\u0131lan bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma ile bu hareketi a\u00e7\u0131klayan matematiksel bir denklem bulunmu\u015f. Ve i\u015fin ilgin\u00e7 yan\u0131, bu denklem m\u00fchendislerin onlarca y\u0131l \u00f6nce karayollar\u0131nda meydana gelen trafik s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamak i\u00e7in tasarlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 denklemle neredeyse \u00f6zde\u015f. <\/span><\/p>\n

\"03<\/p>\n

Ekstrem hava olaylar\u0131 demi\u015fken, bu y\u0131lki kas\u0131rga sezonunun ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde ge\u00e7ece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Kas\u0131rgalar\u0131n 30 y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\u00a0Kas\u0131rgalar\u0131n yo\u011funla\u015fma periyodu esnas\u0131ndaki ortalama h\u0131z\u0131, 30 y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 km\/sa daha y\u00fcksek. Bu f\u0131rt\u0131na g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki art\u0131\u015f en \u00e7ok da Atlantik \u00fczerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Atlantik Sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131 kas\u0131rgan\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenme, geli\u015fme periyodunu etkileyen bir durum. (Son kurdu\u011fum bu c\u00fcmle Atlantik Sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 bilenlere, bilmiyorsan\u0131z bilahere anlat\u0131r\u0131m, zira yaz\u0131m\u0131 \u00e7ok uzatt\u0131m) \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Kuzey Atlantik\u2019in su s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda o y\u00f6netiyor. Ve son y\u0131llarda bu s\u0131cakl\u0131k daha da art\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00c7al\u0131\u015fmalarda dikey r\u00fczgar y\u00f6n\u00fc ve kuvvetinin de farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, bu durumun f\u0131rt\u0131nalar\u0131 daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hale getirdi\u011fi g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015fler. Dikey r\u00fczgarlar bulutun boyunu uzat\u0131yor, bulutun tavan\u0131n daha yukar\u0131lara, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla daha so\u011fuk b\u00f6lgelere do\u011fru uzan\u0131yor, bulutun tavan\u0131 ne kadar so\u011fuk b\u00f6lgedeyse o kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve dolu \u00fcretimi fazla oluyor. Buraya da bu notu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcp yaz\u0131m\u0131 bitireyim. Kal\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131cakla\u2026.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cEvet evet benim u\u00e7ak da r\u00f6tar yapt\u0131\u201d derdim ben de yaz\u0131y\u0131 yazan de\u011fil de okuyan olsayd\u0131m. Bu ayki konumuz havadaki trafikle ilgili ama bu trafik Jet Ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n trafi\u011fi. Jet ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n -saatte 160 km h\u0131za ula\u015fabilen \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc r\u00fczgarlar- hem do\u011fal s\u00fcre\u00e7te hem de iklim de\u011fi\u015fimi y\u00fcz\u00fcnden rotas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131klar olabiliyor. \u00d6nce size \u015fu Jet Ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 kolayca […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":477,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"amp_status":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-672","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-guncel-hava-olaylari"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nB\u00fcnyamin S\u00fcrmeli'den yeni yaz\u0131 : Havada trafik s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.unicosigorta.com.tr\/blog\/bunyamin-surmeliden-yeni-yazi-havada-trafik-sikisti\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"B\u00fcnyamin S\u00fcrmeli'den yeni yaz\u0131 : Havada trafik s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u201cEvet evet benim u\u00e7ak da r\u00f6tar yapt\u0131\u201d derdim ben de yaz\u0131y\u0131 yazan de\u011fil de okuyan olsayd\u0131m. Bu ayki konumuz havadaki trafikle ilgili ama bu trafik Jet Ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n trafi\u011fi. Jet ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n -saatte 160 km h\u0131za ula\u015fabilen \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc r\u00fczgarlar- hem do\u011fal s\u00fcre\u00e7te hem de iklim de\u011fi\u015fimi y\u00fcz\u00fcnden rotas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131klar olabiliyor. \u00d6nce size \u015fu Jet Ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 kolayca […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.unicosigorta.com.tr\/blog\/bunyamin-surmeliden-yeni-yazi-havada-trafik-sikisti\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-07-02T11:00:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2018-10-17T13:13:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.unicosigorta.com.tr\/blog\/dosyalar\/2018\/04\/Screenshot-at-Apr-24-16-38-16.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2864\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1606\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" 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